NO. 361 报告人：赵婧
Epidemic outbreak, uncertainty and FDI fluctuation
题目： Epidemic outbreak, uncertainty and FDI fluctuation
报告人：赵 婧 助理教授 武汉大学经济与管理学院
主持人：叶 兵 副教授 浙江大学民营经济研究中心
时间： 2021年11月12日（星期五） 下午1：00 -2：30
地点： 腾讯会议（会议 ID：718 895 601； 本次会议对外开放，请加入会议者将个人姓名备注为 真实姓名+单位）
摘要:This paper studies how FDI inflows fluctuate when the host country is hit by epidemic outbreak. Based on uncertainty theory, we propose S-shaped FDI fluctuations during and after the outbreak. By analyzing historical outbreak and bilateral FDI data from 2001 to 2012, we find FDI inflows during an outbreak are 20.8% below the pre-outbreak average, and FDI inflows after the end of an outbreak are 20.1% above the pre-outbreak average within three years, which highlights the compensatory FDI after the end of epidemic and thereby confirms the S-shaped fluctuation. Furthermore, by studying the industry-level heterogeneity, we first confirm the validity of the uncertainty mechanism converting the health shock into risk factors in the real economy; secondly we find the medical conditions and institutional quality may influence the effect of epidemic on FDI inflows, in the sense that countries with poor medical conditions suffer greater decreases in FDI inflows during outbreaks, and countries characterized by poorer institutional quality do not experience compensatory FDI after an outbreak ends.